Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Today 538 published our official forecast ... of that election overestimated Biden's vote margin by 4.6 points — about 1.5 times the average 3-point bias for presidential elections since 1972. Read More

Election 2024 Polls: Biden vs. Trump (Archived)

About this data Note: Biden vs. Trump head-to-head averages ... Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times. The presidential election ... Read More

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ... Read More

Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally

They show incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump essentially tied in national ... Of course, the election will not be held today. While 538's new way of calculating ... Read More

Harris or Trump? Once Again, Election Results Could Take Awhile.

More Americans are using mail-in ballots, which take longer to count than those cast in person. In several battleground states, a winner may not be apparent on Nov. 5. Read More

Election 2024 will all come down to turnout — here’s what you need to know

Polling numbers show what could be a close race, particularly in battleground states. But the underlying trending support for Democrats is indisputable, suggesting that the race for the White ... Read More

Will Trump Beat Expectations Again?

The FiveThirtyEight polling average showed him beating Donald Trump by 10.7 points, a victory that would have been the biggest landslide since Ronald Reagan beat Walter Mondale in 1984. And even as ... Read More

Top Election Forecast Model Relaunched Three Weeks Later Than Scheduled

FiveThirtyEight, which is owned by ABC News and is widely considered to be one of the leading election ... Trump. The lack of a new FiveThirtyEight forecast for more than four weeks after Biden ... Read More

Where the race between Trump and Harris stands on Labor Day, according to our polling expert

A race that Kamala Harris leads nationally is the equivalent of a knife fight in a phone booth, and it’s set to be decided in a smaller-than-usual number of states. Read More

Evening Report – Harris zooms past Trump in election forecast

VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS has vaulted past former President Trump to be the slight favorite to win the November election, though the race is close 10 weeks out, according to a brand new The Hill ... Read More

How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump

Empirically, based on how well it would have done in the 2000-2020 presidential elections, the new 538 forecast ... between Trump and Biden in Pennsylvania on Election Day: (1) Trump's 3.9-point ... Read More

How 538's 2024 presidential election forecast works

Dive into the weeds of our new Harris-Trump model. For 2024, 538 has built a new presidential election ... and our new forecast consider only polls conducted entirely after Biden's withdrawal ... Read More