Trump and Biden are tied in 538's new election forecast

Today 538 published our official forecast ... of that election overestimated Biden's vote margin by 4.6 points — about 1.5 times the average 3-point bias for presidential elections since 1972. Read More

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?

A state’s tipping-point chance is the probability it will give the Electoral College winner their 270th electoral vote. The Voter Power Index (VPI) is a relative measure of how likely an individual ... Read More

How 538 is adjusting our election model for Harris versus Trump

On Thursday, Aug. 22, Vice President Kamala Harris officially accepted the Democratic Party's nomination to be its 2024 candidate for president. The following day, we turned on our election forecast ... Read More

Top Election Forecast Model Relaunched Three Weeks Later Than Scheduled

FiveThirtyEight, which is owned by ABC News and is widely considered to be one of the leading election ... Trump. The lack of a new FiveThirtyEight forecast for more than four weeks after Biden ... Read More

Harris or Trump? The Prophet of Presidential Elections Is Ready to Call the Race.

Opinion Video features innovative video journalism commentary — argued essays, Op-Ed videos, documentaries, and fact-based explanation of current affairs. The videos are produced by both outside video ... Read More

Trump leads in swing-state polls and is tied with Biden nationally

They show incumbent President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump essentially tied in national ... Of course, the election will not be held today. While 538's new way of calculating ... Read More

Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In Third Survey This Week

That’s how many points Harris leads Trump by in RealClearPolitics’ latest polling average. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average shows Harris with a ... Read More

Election 2024 Polls: Biden vs. Trump (Archived)

About this data Note: Biden vs. Trump head-to-head averages ... Sources: Polling averages by The New York Times. Individual polls collected by FiveThirtyEight and The Times. The presidential election ... Read More

Our new forecast for America’s presidential election

Keep up with the contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with our US election forecast model So what is our fundamentals prediction? Based on past elections ... by Mr Biden’s low approval ... Read More

Where the race between Trump and Harris stands on Labor Day, according to our polling expert

A race that Kamala Harris leads nationally is the equivalent of a knife fight in a phone booth, and it’s set to be decided in a smaller-than-usual number of states. Read More

Election 2024 Latest: Trump and Harris focus on tax policy ahead of next week's debate

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will debate for the first time next Tuesday as the presidential candidates fight to sway voters on the biggest stage in U.S. politics ... Read More

Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump in 5 battleground states, tied in Georgia, poll finds

Sign-up for Your Vote: Text with the USA TODAY elections team. Trump led Biden in six of the seven battleground states, and was tied ... Election 2024? Sign up for USA TODAY's On Politics newsletter. Read More