Higher costs would likely result in higher menu prices
of ConsumerAffairsWhile grocery prices have, with the exception of eggs, leveled off in recent months, the cost of eating at restaurants continues to rise. According to the February Consumer Price Index, the cost of food consumed away from home increased 0.4% and is up 3.7% over the last 12 months.
An analysis by OysterLink, a hospitality industry job platform, projects that potential mass deportations of undocumented workers could lead to widespread labor shortages, forcing restaurants to drastically increase pay to attract and retain staff.
OysterLink's data suggest that the average hourly wage in the restaurant sector could rise by $3, boosting annual salaries by approximately $6,537. This surge is attributed to the potential loss of a substantial portion of the workforce, as the American Immigration Council estimates that one in 14 hospitality workers is undocumented and at risk of deportation.
"The impact of stricter immigration policies could create a perfect storm for the restaurant industry," OysterLink said in a statement. "With immigrants comprising 22% of the food service workforce, particularly in crucial back-of-house roles, their absence would leave a significant labor void."
Projected wage increases
Key wage projections highlight the potential impact on various positions:
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Entry-level roles (food runners, bussers, dishwashers) are expected to see a $2 per hour increase, translating to an additional $4,200-$5,000 annually.
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Skilled kitchen roles (sous chefs, pastry chefs) could experience a $4 per hour increase, adding roughly $8,000 to their yearly earnings.
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The overall industry average is projected to climb from $22 to $25 per hour.
OysterLink's analysis indicates that the existing 14.4% wage gap between native-born and foreign-born employees, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, could be closed. In a scenario of severe labor shortages, wages for positions like bartenders could exceed current projections.
According to the projections, the average bartender could go from making $17 an hour or $35,500 a year to earning $20 an hour, or $40,669 per year. The projections underscore the potential financial strain on restaurants, which may be forced to pass increased labor costs onto consumers.
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Posted: 2025-03-26 11:27:28
