The last three years have been influenced by Nia but a fourth is unlikely
of ConsumerAffairsQuick, do you know whichLa Nia is which? Most people don't but the weather experts at theNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center do, and they predicta 60% chance that a weak La Nia will form this fall and could last until March.
What would that mean? It could mean thatsouthern areas of the U.S. and parts of Mexico could be drier. The northern U.S. and southern Canada might see wetter conditions.
La Nia is part of a natural climate cycle that can lead to extreme weather around the world, though its effects vary by region.
La Nia is the cooler phase of a global climate pattern called El Nio-Southern Oscillation. It involves changes in wind and ocean temperatures in the Pacific, which can impact weather worldwide.
El Nio, the warmer phase, happens when trade winds weaken, causing warm water to pile up near South America. During La Nia, the opposite occursthe winds get stronger, and cooler water rises to the surface, cooling the eastern Pacific.
These changes in ocean temperatures affect the jet stream, a fast-moving band of air that influences storm patterns and rainfall. During La Nia, the jet stream shifts northward, affecting storm paths and increasing precipitation in certain areas.
A rare "triple-dip"
Recently, Earth went through a rare "triple-dip" La Nia from 2020 to 2023, where La Nia conditions occurred three winters in a row, something that had only happened once before in the 1970s. Climate scientist Michelle LHeureux from NOAA explained that La Nias tend to last longer and recur more often than El Nio events.
Ben Cook, a climate scientist at NASA, said that while another La Nia this year would be unusual, its not impossible. He added that frequent La Nias can be tough for regions already dealing with drought, like East Africa, as it could worsen dry conditions.
In the U.S., areas like the Northeast and Ohio Valley are often wetter during La Nia, with more storms due to the jet streams position. The central U.S. may experience more cold outbreaks, and regions like New England and the Great Lakes often see more snow, though this isnt guaranteed. In contrast, the southern U.S. tends to be drier and warmer.
Scientists are still uncertain about how climate change affects La Nia and El Nio. Some models suggest El Nio events may become more frequent, while La Nias may occur less often, but theres no consensus. Climate scientist Paul Roundy notes that its hard to separate natural climate cycles from the influence of climate change, but the patterns we see now could shift in the future.
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Posted: 2024-10-23 18:06:54
